Did the NL Cy Go To the Wrong Home in 2009?
Heading into the 2009 season, each of the top-three finishers for the NL Cy Young vote at season’s end was at very different points in their careers. At the top was Giants ace Tim Lincecum, who broke onto the scene in his second season in the MLB to win the 2008 Cy Young Award at 24 after going 18–5 with a 2.62 ERA in 227.0 innings, leading the league with 265 strikeouts, a 168 ERA+, 10.5 K/9, and the fewest hits and home runs allowed per nine innings. In the middle was the first of two Cardinals pitchers, Adam Wainwright, who continued his path as a rising star in 2008 by going 11–3 with a 3.20 ERA in twenty starts, beginning his emergence as the Cardinals ace. On the end of the spectrum was Chris Carpenter, a former Cy Young winner whose career was in doubt heading into 2009 after making a combined five starts in the two years prior, having battled elbow spurs that eventually led to Tommy John Surgery.
As the season unfolded, it became clear that Lincecum was not a one-hit-wonder, Wainwright had arrived as a staff ace, and that a healthy Carpenter could still bring it. When the season concluded, all three pitchers were involved in one of the most memorable Cy Young votes of al-time. Based on a 5–3–1 tabulation system where each voter got to pick a first, second, and third-place finisher, Wainwright received the most first-place votes with 12, which when combined with his five-second and 15 third-place votes led him to finish with 90 points. Despite finishing with the most first-place votes, Wainwright finished third in the voting, as Carpenter received 94 points with nine first, 14 second, and seven third-place votes. For the second year in a row, Lincecum took home the Cy Young Award, finishing with 100 points after receiving eleven first-place votes, 12 second, and nine third-place votes. The six-point voting margin between Lincecum and Carpenter was the third closest since the NL Cy Young ballot expanded to three pitchers in 1970, and the 10-point margin among the top three vote-getters was the second closest behind 1987. Additionally, the only other time a pitcher won the Cy Young Award without receiving the most first-place votes was in 1998 when the Atlanta Braves’ Tom Glavine had 11 votes to San Diego Padres reliever Trevor Hoffman’s 13 votes, but out-pointed him overall, 98–88.
It has to be noted that at the time, voters were only allowed to vote for three players on their Cy Young ballot; the vote was expanded to five players per ballot starting with the 2010 season. As a result, only five players received Cy Young votes in the NL, the three players mentioned above, Javier Vazquez, and Dan Haren, each of whom received one third-place vote each. In most instances, we celebrate the competitiveness of such a close awards vote, but fans immediately criticized the vote after hearing that two writers, Keith Law and Will Carroll, both left Chris Carpenter off their ballots entirely. With that (and hindsight) in mind, I thought it would be a fun exercise to see who was truly deserving of the NL Cy Young Award in 2009 over a decade later. Below is how each pitcher ranked in a variety of pitching categories that season.
WAR: Lincecum 7.4, Carpenter 6.5, Wainwright 6.3
Wins: Wainwright 19, Carpenter 17, Lincecum 15
ERA: Carpenter 2.24, Lincecum 2.48, Wainwright 2.63
Games: Wainwright 34, Lincecum 32, Carpenter 28
Complete Games: Lincecum 4, Carpenter 3, Wainwright 1
Shutouts: Lincecum 2 Carpenter 1, Wainwright 0
Innings Pitched: Wainwright 223.0, Lincecum 225.1 IP, Carpenter 192.2 IP
Hits Allowed: Carpenter 156, Lincecum 168, Wainwright 216
Earned Runs Allowed: Carpenter 48, Lincecum 62, Wainwright 68
HR Allowed: Carpenter 7, Lincecum 10, Wainwright 17
Walks: Carpenter 38, Wainwright 66, Lincecum 68
Strikeouts: Lincecum 261, Wainwright 212, Carpenter 144
Batters Faced: Wainwright 970, Lincecum 905, Carpenter 750
WHIP: Carpenter 1.003, Lincecum 1.047, Wainwright 1.210
ERA+: Carpenter 182, Lincecum 171, Wainwright 155
For those keeping track of home, Lincecum led the trio in WAR, complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts, Wainwright led in wins, games, innings pitched, and batters faced, and Carpenter led the league ERA, hits allowed, HR allowed, walks, WHIP, and ERA+. What does this give us? Well, it gives us an even more convoluted view of the vote than before, as Lincecum was the most “valuable” pitcher who led in categories based on stuff/dominance, Wainwright led in traditional stats that voters love like wins and innings, and Carpenter excelled in run prevention and was the best pitcher when adjusted for park factors, but did so in significantly fewer innings than then Lincecum or Wainwright. Basically, the vote comes down to what statistics you value in a starting pitcher, which were significantly different eleven years ago than today; look no further than Jacob deGrom winning two Cy Youngs with a combined twenty-one wins!
The other question is how legacies may have been changed had this vote gone differently for each pitcher. Candidly, none of these pitchers have a real shot at the Hall of Fame, so their legacies wouldn’t have changed too much. In Lincecum’s case, his dominant five-year peak from 2008–2012 looks a little less dominant with only one Cy Young Award, while Carpenter’s career is probably looked at more fondly with a second award in his trophy case. If anything, Wainwright’s legacy took the biggest hit, as he’s a multi-time All-Star, twenty-game winner, and World Series winner with a Roberto Clemente Award to boot, making a Cy Young Award the only achievement missing from his career.
Looking at the ballot today, it’s hard to say who I would have voted for, but I’ve come to the conclusion that a thirteen-year-old Chase would have voted for Wainwright in 2009 on the strength of a twenty-win, 200 strikeout season, and today vote for Carpenter as he was the best pitcher on a per-appearance basis, and had the narrative behind him after returning from injuries. No matter what, this will always be a Cy Young vote to remember, with three of the defining pitchers of my teenage years going head to head for a chance at immortality.
